Media Predict correctly predicted toss-up 2020 Presidential election

With over 150 million votes cast, the Presidential election came down to less than 100 thousand votes in a handful of states. This was a razor-thin margin of victory. And one that Media Predict’s prediction markets foresaw. In spite of the almost daily release of polls, betting markets,and other highly-regarded projections that indicated there would be a run-away Joe Biden victory,Media Predict’s prediction market went its own way – independently of the collective wisdom and accurately predicted that this election would be very close,a true toss-up. Our market, in the month prior to the election, averaged a 51% probability that President Trump would win re-election. For the three days prior to November 3rd, our prediction market averaged a 50% probability for each candidate. And at 11:59 p.m. on November 2nd, our prediction market indicated a 50.9% probability that Joe Biden would win the election. That is incredible precision and remarkable foresight: Media Predict forecasted that it would be a very close election…and it was.

Donald Trump Re-election Probability

October 2019 to November 2020


Media Predict provides innovative, timely and superior research solutions for a wide range of client needs. The company has created a unique, flexible, and responsive research technology platform that allows it to provide its clients with high-value and actionable data and insights that are tailored to their needs as well as their timing. We deliver the information and insights that our media, consumer products, retail, tech and restaurant clients require, before they need to make a decision, take action and/or commit resources. We do this by blending complementary research methods – including prediction markets, custom surveys, dial and A/B testing - with online panels and a highly skilled research team.