Don't take our word for it. Take theirs.

If you're an interested client, contact us to inquire about our proprietary data record in Television, Advertising, Film, Politics, and other verticals. The great results we're seeing are in line with a long history of evidence, all of which says the same thing: prediction markets work.

Politics: Prediction Market Accuracy in the Long Run, Joyce Berg, Forrest Nelson and Thomas Rietz (University of Iowa)

"Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the evidence on efficiency compares election eve forecasts with final pre-election polls and actual outcomes. Here, we present evidence that prediction markets outperform polls for longer horizons. We gather national polls for the 1988 through 2004 U.S. Presidential elections and ask whether either the poll or a contemporaneous Iowa Electronic Markets vote-share market prediction is closer to the eventual outcome for the two-major-party vote split. We compare market predictions to 964 polls over the five Presidential elections since 1988. The market is closer to the eventual outcome 74% of the time. Further, the market significantly outperforms the polls in every election when forecasting more than 100 days in advance."

Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google and Ford, Cowgill (UC Berkeley) and Zitzewitz (Dartmouth College)

"First, we find that forecasts from predictions markets outperform other forecasts available to management, including, in the case of Ford, sales forecasts that are aken extremely seriously. . . Second, we find that prediction markets get better with age. In both the Google and Ford Sales markets, initial pricing biases disappeared as our sample progressed."

Motion Pictures: How Markets Help Marketers, Anita Elberse (Harvard Business School)

"By closely monitoring stock movements after, say, the release of a trailer, the start of a guerrilla marketing effort, or the airing of a television commercial, executives can assess that marketing action’s effectiveness. If their ad campaigns fail to bump up the stock prices, the studios can further tweak the existing plan, switch their efforts to a new format—a buzz-generating Web campaign, for example—or reduce their spending to try to minimize losses."

More coming soon